2019 years of real estate sales pressure housing prices continue to increase market outlook

Wu NEW

In December 2018 06, 08:19 source: beijing morning post
 
Original title: the real estate market in 2019

With the deepening of market regulation policy, regulation and control effects appear gradually, first-tier cities and some hot second city real estate market recovers, part of the three or four line of the city real estate market cooling. In 2019 years, China's property market regulation policy has the possibility of loosening? China's land market is hot is cold? The new home market will have what change? These problems are the focus of attention of the community. Let us listen to the analysis of industry experts.

The property market regulation policy is difficult to loose

In the central government house was used to live, not to stir the "positioning, a city of our country introduced a variety of market regulation policy, from the purchase of credit limit, limit to limit, limit the sale of the business, and real estate speculators are squeezed out. Then, a city real estate market of our country gradually stabilized.

In 2019, China's property market regulation policy will be loose? In this regard, Guo Yi chief analyst Shuo said, "did not mention the real estate policy Bureau in October this year the central economic work conference, on the one hand shows the current regulatory policy is effective, no need tight; on the other hand, in the face of economic downward pressure, the stability is more critical. Is expected to improve in 2019 the real estate market policy environment, but very little possibility to fully relax."

Neutral monetary policy steady

In 2017, a city of China's tightening of credit policy, the influence on the local real estate market. Yi think tank research director Yan Yuejin told the Beijing morning news reporter said, "in 2018, the monetary policy is obviously QianJinHouSong, especially in the second half with the RRR policy effect the release of the property market, including financing bonds, will usher in a good chance."

"At the end of the easing of monetary policy environment, although the bank credit has improved, but the enterprise credit risk is still relatively cautious, did not enhance the appetite, show" not to credit "and" unwilling to lend "characteristics." Guo Yi said, is expected in 2019 will continue to maintain a proactive fiscal policy and prudent neutral monetary policy and loose monetary policy environment is expected to be a certain stability and support effect on the property market.

The land market return to reason

In 2018, in the background of market regulation policy tightening, both in Beijing as the representative of the first-tier cities, or the focus of the two or three line of the city, the land market overall showing a "cooling" situation.

"In 2018, the national land market, land auction, the opening price, low premium turnover phenomenon are emerging. Near the end of the year, a number of city land market supply increased, the land market has some signs of recovery." Yan Yuejin said, is expected to 2019 years, housing prices will remain cautious and rational land market.

According to the statistical data of Heshuo institutions show that this year a total turnover of Beijing with the 35 residential, the average premium rate of 15.6%. In addition, the first half of this year Beijing 4 plots unsold bids phenomenon.

Beijing Centaline group consultant Center Senior Manager Jin Ruixin said, because the supply of residential land in Beijing, there are many additional conditions, and take to the relatively high cost, there are price plus the future land premium is correspondingly reduced, so the heat situation of real estate enterprises in Beijing with reduced. In 2019, the majority of real estate enterprises to "maintain stability", take place in Beijing will be more cautious.

The sales of housing prices continue to increase the pressure

According to the National Bureau of statistics released in 2018 October, 70 large and medium-sized city commercial housing sales price changes in statistics show that from the chain, four first-tier cities in new commercial housing sales prices were flat; second-hand housing sales price fell 0.2%, a decline of more than 0.1 percentage points in September to expand, including Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou were down 0.2%, Shenzhen fall 0.6%. 31 second tier city of new commodity housing and second-hand housing sales price rose 1% and 0.3%, or more than in September dropped 0.1 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points respectively. 35 three line city of new commodity housing prices rose more than 9 months 1.1%, expand 0.2 percentage points; second-hand housing sales price rose 0.5%, rose fell 0.3 percentage points higher than 9 months.

In the regulation scope, strength of the local real estate market, obvious differentiation.

I love my family in the research institute analyst said that the current national real estate policy tightening, the purchase of credit limit and limit the sale of the city become standard case, the property market has been difficult to improve. With the continued tightening of policy, the future of the property market from the first to the two or three line will gradually return to rational, the market will be more stable.

"In 2019, the real estate enterprise sales pressure will continue to increase, will actively promote the." Yan Yuejin said.

(commissioning editor Sun Hongli and Kong Haili)

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