2019 real estate market outlook housing prices continue to increase sales pressure

Wu Xin

06 December 2018, 08:19 source: beijing morning post
Original title: 2019 real estate market

With the deepening of the market regulation policy, the effect of regulation and control is gradually emerging. The real estate market in the first tier cities and some hot spot second tier cities is stable, and some three or four line urban real estate markets are cooling down. Looking forward to 2019, is there any possibility of loosening of China's property market regulation policies? Is the land market cold or hot in China? What will happen to the new housing market? These problems are the focus of attention from all walks of life. Let's listen to the analysis of industry experts.

Market regulation policy is difficult to loose

After the central government put forward the idea that "the house is used to live, not to stir fry", many cities in China have issued various property control policies, from the restriction of purchase, the loan limit, the price limit to the limit of business and the sale of restricted property, and the speculators and the speculators are all squeezed out. As a result, China's urban real estate market has gradually stabilized.

Will China's property market control policy loose in 2019? In response, Guo Yi, chief analyst of Ho Shuo institution, said: "in October this year, the Central Bureau of policy economic work conference did not mention real estate. On the one hand, it showed that the current regulatory policies had been effective and not tight enough; on the other hand, under the downward pressure of the economy, stability is more critical. It is expected that the policy environment of the real estate market will improve in 2019, but the possibility of full relaxation is minimal. "

Monetary policy is robust and neutral.

In 2017, the tightening of credit policies in many cities had different effects on the local real estate market. Yan Yuejin, research director of E-House think tank, told the Beijing Morning Post reporter: "in 2018, monetary policy is obviously tight and loose. Especially in the second half of this year, with the release of the policy effect of lowering the accuracy, the financing of the property market, including issuing bonds, will usher in a better opportunity."

"At the end of the year, the monetary policy environment tended to be more relaxed. Although the credit lines of banks increased, the credit risk of enterprises was still cautious, and their risk preferences did not improve. Guo Yi said that it is expected to maintain a proactive fiscal policy and a robust monetary policy in 2019, and that the loose monetary policy environment is expected to play a certain role in stabilizing and supporting the property market.

Land market returns to reason

In 2018, under the background of tightened market regulation policies, whether the first tier cities represented by Beijing or the hot two or three line cities, the land market as a whole showed a "cooling" trend.

"In 2018, in the national land market, the phenomenon of land auction, bottom price transaction and low premium transaction were constantly emerging. By the end of the year, the supply of land in many cities increased, and the land market showed signs of some warming. Yan Yuejin said, it is expected that in 2019, housing prices will take a cautious attitude, and the land market will return to reason.

According to statistical data from Ho Shuo institution, 35 residential sites were registered in Beijing this year, with an average premium rate of only 15.6%. In addition, in the first half of this year, there were 4 plots in Beijing.

Jin Ruixin, senior manager of Beijing Consulting Center of Zhongyuan group, believes that due to the additional conditions of Beijing's residential land, and the relatively high cost of taking the land, plus the existence of a price limit, the premium of land will be reduced in the future, so the real estate business in Beijing will be reduced. In 2019, most of the real estate enterprises were mainly "maintaining stability", and they would be more cautious in Beijing.

Housing enterprises continue to increase sales pressure

According to the statistics released by the National Bureau of statistics on the sale price of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in October 2018, the sales price of newly built commercial housing in four tier cities is flat, and the sales price of second-hand housing has dropped by 0.2%, a drop of 0.1 percentage points higher than that in September, with Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou decreasing by 0.2% and Shenzhen by 0.6%. The sales prices of newly built commercial and second-hand housing in 31 second tier cities rose by 1% and 0.3% respectively, or 0.1 and 0.5 percentage points respectively lower than in September. The price of newly built commercial housing in 35 three line cities rose by 1.1%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over that of September, and the sales price of second-hand housing increased by 0.5%, or 0.3 percentage points lower than that in September.

Under the control of large scale and great efforts, the real estate market in different places is obviously divided.

I love our research institute analysts said that in the current national real estate policy situation tightened, the purchase of restricted loans and restricted sale become standard cities, the property market has been difficult to raise the heat. As the policy continues to tighten, the future property market will gradually return to rationality from the first line to the two or three line, and the national market will become more stable.

"In 2019, the pressure of sales of real estate enterprises will continue to increase, and it will actively promote sales." Yan Yuejin said.

(Editor: Sun Hongli, Kong Haili)

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