The attitude of the state real estate ""

Yu Jia Li

In November 2018 09, 08:17 source: Securities Times
Original title: to find:


Xiamen, Taiyuan, Beijing, Changsha ring, there are central enterprises or state-owned enterprises play with, prevent the market become pessimistic.

No news for real estate, is good news. The meeting of the Political Bureau was rarely mentioned in the real estate, because in the eyes of the state, the state of the property market now, is an ideal and balanced state. The growth rate of real estate sales fell 9 in August, and even fell 30 city 3.6%, 10 month transaction area fell 7%, but 1~9 months sales hit a record high. Even if the 2018 annual sales area will decline, but a decline of about 5%, which is still second of the history of good results. Also, because the past year prices rose significantly, the 70 city house price index rose 8.9% year-on-year, Duoshusansi line level of house prices doubled in the first three quarters of the amount of real estate sales growth of up to 13%.

Land prices have been high, but the rate of decline in premium, taking into account the land acquisition costs paid in installments, and "fast start, fast opening, fast payment" mode is highly respected, the new construction is very strong, the investment growth rate of 5%~8%, and then maintained a year without any problems. Thus, with the downstream state-owned property market high boom and excess capacity do not go to the poor. Most importantly, price stability, first-tier cities housing prices began to fall, the top-level design room no speculation "has been compacted from the expected and behavior. Now, the economy is steady, downward pressure, "prices do not rise up, investment, speculative consumption is not busy, prosperous", this is a good situation!

Compared with the spirit of suffering of private enterprises, compared to fame was the financial industry, compared to export-oriented industries were under a trade war, the current real estate living is moist. In the year to the three quarter, the more than 130 listed room rate average net profit growth of more than 50%, net profit of more than 20 enterprises in more than 80% growth. Of course, due to operating income transfer lag, high profit is reflected in the 2017 sales season performance. It is expected that by 2019, the regulation of market decline will dilute the superposition of developers of financial statements.

2015~2017 real estate upstream, root is high inventory and economic stall risk, power lever. The other side of the coin is pulled up, the real estate of the highs, which in turn will bite the economy. Now, take the initiative to leverage over, but "passive deleveraging has just begun, because after a year and a half of deleveraging, including housing prices, asset prices are expected to weaken, and lever motivation. In addition, the downward pressure on the economy, we have a hard time".

Therefore, the future of the property market volume decline, prices fall prevention, and perhaps more important in balancing strategy. So, we see, from central to local, are hedging and underpinning. Hedge occurred at the central level, the supply side is mainly structural reforms, such as leasing, common property rights, shed change, urbanization and other support policies; underpinning occurred mainly at the local level, mainly is the lifting of price regulation (such as Guangzhou, Beijing, etc.), including the central enterprises and state-owned enterprises underpinning the land market, stop the trend Liupai to ease the market sentiment, fast cooling, such as Xiamen, Taiyuan, Beijing, Changsha ring, had a large central enterprises or state-owned enterprises play with, prevent the market become pessimistic.

Of course, hedge and underpinning is not "rescue", but to prevent rushed to the high Lake property market high balance to ensure the breaching of the dike, and now because of the real estate "too big to fail". The policy on the purchase credit limit and other regulatory policies to keep continuous and stable, and will gradually lift the natural price policy to stabilize the expected price. Because the second-hand housing prices down the channel has been opened, a second-hand housing price upside down "will no longer exist. In addition, the market quickly turned cold, high turnover mode Everfount supply, supply and demand pattern is difficult to support prices, while the front-end and back-end sales financing on the capital chain of "double squeeze", future developers pricing conservative actions.

Treat people the concept of wealth, the great changes have taken place, that is no longer a wealth of savings, but savings will shrink due to inflation and asset prices. The decline in savings except millennials avant-garde consumption, is the root of the people to buy a house. The future, the house will replace the savings into wealth storage form, as long as prices not fall too far (countries do not allow this), the house as a wonderful sense of wealth will exist for a long time. If there is a constant long work, Chinese people will not sell the house is worth. Recently, the "steady employment" in the first place, in fact is the stable market". The future of the property market appears to be high, very cold, but it is still there, but the price is gradually trading wood, stability. At the same time, springhead of urbanization, a better life will provide new demand, realize the demand structure, the bubble The new supersedes the old. kill, is full of wisdom Chinese off the virtual reality arrangement.

(the author is a senior real estate research)

(commissioning editor Wu Zhenguo and Sun Hongli)

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