Beijing property market is facing to the problem

Cui Qibin Rong Lei

In November 2018 09, 07:11 source: Beijing Business Today
Original title: Beijing property market is facing to the problem

"Silver ten" ended October, Beijing houses, second-hand housing transactions and show mutual phenomenon. Agency data show that in October Beijing new home sales from September highs to stabilize, second-hand housing sales fell to million sets of edge, the highest since February this year, nearly 8 months of sales of low. Some analysts have pointed out that in recent months the real competitive market get together is a major cause of the Beijing property market enthusiasm, but with the subsequent limit housing supply and high competitive market regulation does not waver, the next Beijing houses, second-hand housing turnover will usher in a problem.

New home sales pick up

Although the weather is cold, but the "silver ten" of the property market in Beijing New Deal performance has revealed a glimmer of warmth.

Heshuo agency data show that in October Beijing new supply of 6208 units, compared with the same period last year 1647 growth of 276.9%, compared with growth of 22.7% in September; the volume of 2738 units, compared with the same period last year 1873 growth of 46.2%, a reduction of 7.1% in September.

Spurt supply limited housing projects this year, is regarded as an important factor in promoting the sales of new homes to pick up.

Guo Yi chief analyst Shuo institutions clearly to the Beijing Daily reporter said that the core reason of Beijing new home sales to pick up in the low price, small apartment layout housing listed limit competition.

6 months since Beijing limited competitive housing supply accounted for the total period of commercial housing supply 64%. Due to the limited competitive housing mostly limited 70/90, the 90 square meters Sanju products Beijing new home market price 4 million -500 million yuan for a surge in the amount of. The total area and mainly just need to face, just change the consumer market supply, not only to fill the blank of the new home market in Beijing for nearly two years of existence, with the second-hand housing market demand a high degree of overlap, resulting in part of the purchase by customers to choose the new home market of second-hand housing products limit competition." Guo Yi said.

It is worth noting that, despite the real competitive project actively contributed a certain volume as 10 months, Beijing new home market, but from the whole network signed data, the proportion is not prominent. The real sign.

According to Centaline Property Research Center statistics, as of October 31st this year, Beijing total City limited housing a total of 26 projects, 15982 sets of houses, the cumulative net signed volume of only 2581 units, the cumulative net signed the proportion of only 16%. Even taking into account the net signed data has lagged behind, the real competitive actual sales statistics only 30%.

The cause of competitive housing turnover mediocre is now the overall market is stable, and the real competitive regional supply cluster phenomenon is obvious, which makes the market oversupply contradictions appear, so buyers began to wait and see." Centaline chief analyst Zhang Dawei explained.

The second-hand housing transaction cold

In contrast to the October Beijing new home sales rebound, Beijing second-hand housing transaction performance over the same period is relatively cool. Centaline Property Research Center statistics show that 10 Beijing 8879 sets of second-hand housing transactions, after 2 months again below the million, turnover decreased by 42%.

10 month, Beijing second-hand housing market continues to cool the situation, also reflected in the shell Research Institute Real Data data, the specific performance: volume, average price continued to explore the substantial decline and higher housing stock. According to Real Data data, October Beijing second-hand housing market turnover fell by 12.5% in real time, the National Day Golden Week Effect decline has expanded, turnover after 5 consecutive months of decline last year to November; the average price, the city of Beijing in October of second-hand housing transaction price of 61103 yuan / square meters, down 1.2%, which is already Beijing second-hand housing price fell for two consecutive months, May has dropped to the level below. In addition, because the turnover continued to decline, Beijing second-hand housing stock volume continued to rise and exceed the level of February 2016, to extend the period to 13 months, at a record high since 2016.

For the Beijing second-hand housing turnover decline over four percent, Zhang Dawei analysis, on the one hand is the impact of 10 months the National Day holiday, a long holiday to reduce net signed data for a week, and the year turnover of less than 2 month million is also affected by the holiday (Spring Festival) effect. On the other hand, the 9 month provident fund policy tightening effect, part of net signed in advance, so that when the week turnover blowout, overdraft part of 10 months of turnover. "At the same time, the provident fund policy tightening also has the obvious inhibitory action for the market in October, the overall second-hand housing market compared to previous months has cooled."

Future transactions or "old and new dilemma"

Around the next new houses, second-hand housing turnover situation, many industry experts each one airs his own views.

Guo Yi told the Beijing Daily reporter, at present Beijing sold a total of more than 70 cases of limited competitive housing land, before the end of this year to next year, the real competition will maintain rapid supply situation, the impact on the secondary market will exist for a long time. With the limit of Beijing houses, second-hand housing market in the real competitive game intensifies, favorable second-hand housing prices remain stable.

On the second-hand housing transactions, the shell Research Institute chief market analyst Xu Xiaole believes that the current market is expected to loose, both market enthusiasm is not high, and when limited competitive real projects focus on the market, will divert part of the second-hand housing market demand in November is expected to second-hand housing market transactions do not increase, the average price will fluctuate at current levels.

It is worth mentioning that, from the current market situation, the purchase of "housing is not speculation" mentality has been formed, in addition to a considerable part of the customer base just need out of the price trend concerns serious wait-and-see. Guo Yi analysis, the current Beijing bridal market inventory pressure has begun to appear, if next year the property market regulation policy remains strictly, housing prices will face severe challenges to. This will cause the sharp decline in investment intentions, which affects the normal land market transactions."

In this regard, the industry said that if the housing prices to the pressure surge, perhaps the next Beijing property market turnover will face a "new dilemma" problem.

(commissioning editor Dong Sirui and Sun Hongli)

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